Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

About the PNAS Member Editor
Name Raftery, Adrian
Location University of Washington
Primary Field Social and Political Sciences
Secondary Field Applied Mathematical Sciences
 Election Citation
Raftery is a statistician who has developed new statistical methods for social science research. His work has yielded substantive results in areas such as the persistence of inequalities and fertility differences.
 Research Interests
I am a statistician who develops new statistical methods for the social, environmental and health sciences. I have produced methods for taking account of uncertainty about the structure of a statistical model using Bayesian model averaging. Another interest is in methods for finding groups of objects in data using model-based clustering. I have also developed ways of doing statistical inference from deterministic computer models, including a method called Bayesian melding. This has been the basis for new ways of assessing trends in the population of bowhead whales, for urban planning using land use and transportation models, and for UNAIDS's official methods for estimating and projecting HIV/AIDS prevalence worldwide. More recently I have developed new methods for probabilistic weather forecasting, and for probabilistic projections of human populations.

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